Roughly 45 major motion pictures will be released in the next three months. They’ll have cost a total of $1.5 billion to make and an additional $500 million to market. Simple math tells us the studios are out of their minds. Every summer there are a few blockbusters, seven or eight films that sell roughly $100 million in tickets, and the rest fall into the abyss. For the record, executives insist that their budgets are all under control. Turn off the tape recorder, though, and it’s another story. “It’s going to be a bloody summer,” says one studio marketing chief. Complicating matters is the fact that, at press time, James Cameron’s “Titanic” is still an elephant looking for a place to sit. No matter where it lands–July 25 is the studio’s best guess –it’s going to crush somebody. There aren’t enough weekends to go around. To quote Kate Winslet’s character in the Cameron opus: “Don’t you understand?! The water is freezing, and there aren’t enough boats! Half the people on this ship are going to die!”
What follows is the buzz on the season’s leading contenders. NEWSWEEK has also obtained a National Research Group report. The studios pay the NRG to ask people like you if they’re looking forward to movies like these–and hang on every test score. For this report, 1,200 people were interviewed in a total of 12 major markets.
Hollywood hedges its bets with familiar faces. That’s why a “Speed” sequel seemed a no-brainer. But sources say it cost $140 million. Twentieth Century Fox may be gasping, but De Bont is quite happy, thank you. He had a dream. The studio gets the nightmare.
The Lost World Directed by Steven Spielberg. With Jeff Goldblum, Julianne Moore and Vince Vaughn. Budget: $74 million
Buzz: Spielberg refused to make an “E.T.” sequel because the movie was too personal. But “Jurassic Park” isn’t even one of his favorite five. The characters could have been more compelling. T. Rex and Co. could have been more realistic. And another thing: “It took 15 minutes to get to the first dinosaurs, which was infuriating,” says Spielberg. Expect a darker, scarier sequel. The plot’s a state secret, but apparently the finale finds the dinos escaping their island and threatening to sack America. Says Goldblum, “This time, I get wetter and muddier.” Spielberg just gets richer. It’ll have the biggest opening weekend of all time, though not the long legs of the original. Should make at least $250 million.
NRG test score: 51% definitely interested (the summer high)
Con Air Directed by Simon West. With Nicolas Cage, John Cusack and John Malkovich. Budget: $75 million
Buzz: America’s baddest cons hijack a prison transport plane. Producer Jerry Bruckheimer is not known for subtlety, but his stars, fortunately, are. Says Cage, “I was able to make my character a guy who wants to deliver a $4 stuffed pink bunny to his daughter. That’s basically the driving force.” “Con Air” will be lucky to make $75 million with “Speed 2” bearing down on it.
Test score: 24% definitely interested
Speed 2: Cruise Control Directed by Jan De Bont. With Sandra Bullock, Jason Patric and Willem Dafoe. Budget: $140 million
Buzz: Keanu Reeves wanted to play bass instead, which sounds sort of noble–unless you’ve heard his band. Bullock returned because “Jan gave me my career, period.” She’s now on a runaway cruise ship with new beau Patric. In advance footage, alas, he’s so stoical he looks like a lawn statue. Doesn’t he ever smile? “I had to beat it out of him sometimes,” De Bont admits. “But you think Keanu was easy?” This is the most likely box-office disaster of the summer. It might make just $80 million. By the way, what happened to Keanu’s character? Says Patric, “Um, I guess he becomes a rock star or something.”
Test score: 32% definitely interested
Batman & Robin Directed by Joel Schumacher. With George Clooney, Chris O’Donnell, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Uma Thurman and Alicia Silverstone. Budget: $110 million
Buzz: His and her nipples on the Batsuits this time. Some top executives and agents suspect this installment will be a stinker, but the agents may just be irked that their clients weren’t cast. Sources say there was a cat fight for the Poison Ivy role, with Thurman triumphing over the likes of Julia Roberts and Sharon Stone. Schumacher will say only: “When you say Poison Ivy’s the most beautiful woman in the world and if you kiss her you die, those are fighting words in Hollywood.” This will be the lightest, campiest chapter of the Bat saga, but audiences will show up just to see Schwarzenegger’s Mr. Freeze. They’ll also enjoy watching the unlikely Batgirl get tough. Says Silverstone, “I don’t just sit down and say, ‘You’re behavior’s inappropriate, Poison’.” “Batman” will open huge, then have its wings clipped by “Men in Black.” Should make $150 million.
Test score: 45% definitely interested
My Best Friend’s Wedding Directed by P. J. Hogan. With Julia Roberts, Dermot Mulroney and Cameron Diaz. Budget: $40 million
Buzz: “Mary Reilly” and “Michael Collins” proved Roberts was not meant to time-travel. In this romantic comedy, she’s a woman who once promised to marry her best friend if neither of them got lucky. He did. She didn’t. Now she’s trying to sabotage his walk down the aisle. A couple of different endings have been shot–and don’t expect the no-brainer. Says Diaz, “Julia’s character is both a villain and a hero. She’s pretty much there to give me a good stabbin’.” Should make $60 million.
Test score: 20% definitely interested
Hercules Directed by John Musker and Ron Clements. With the voices of Tate Donovan, Susan Egan, James Woods and Danny DeVito. Budget: $70 million
Buzz: A demoralized Herc attempts to make it back up Mount Olympus, and a slip-sliding Disney tries to make real money again. “Pocahontas” and “Hunchback” were relatively dark and historical. " “Hercules’ is much less serious,” says the film’s composer, Alan Menken. “It’s a total romp.” DreamWorks and Fox are poised to enter the animation field–the suddenly crowded marketplace has already driven the price of animators way up–so this may be the last time Disney has an open field. “Hercules” should make $125 million.
Test score: 37% definitely interested
Face/Off Directed by John Woo. With John Travolta and Nicolas Cage. Budget: $80 million
Buzz: We’re not sure we’ll understand the plot of this one after we see it, let alone now. Travolta’s an FBI agent who exchanges identities with terrorist Cage. After “Con Air,” audiences may have had their fill of Cage. Still, Travolta’s a megastar, Woo’s raw action is a draw, and now that “Titanic” has been delayed, the studio has more time to milk this one. Could make $125 million.
Test score: 30% definitely interested
Men in Black Directed by Barry Sonnenfeld. With Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones. Budget: $90 million
Buzz: “Independence Day” meets “Ghostbusters”: an elite corps of cool-walking cops bust aliens in New York City. “I was really nervous with all these manly movies coming out,” says Sonnenfeld. “I didn’t think anyone was paying attention to me, especially Sony.” Now Hollywood executives and theater owners are predicting this will be the freshest, funniest blockbuster. But can Sonnenfeld make a movie bad enough to do “ID4” business? Here’s to wishful thinking: $200 million.
Test score: 34% definitely interested
Contact Directed by Robert Zemeckis. With Jodie Foster and Matthew McConaughey. Budget: $90 million
Buzz: A female astronomer gets a signal from space, along with a blueprint for a spaceship–and since it’s Jodie Foster, you damn well know she’s gonna hop in. Carl Sagan’s novel of the same name has the cast waxing about science and religion–“All the universes are like the epidermis on the skin of a balloon,” says McConaughey–so expect smart, character-driven sci-fi for grown-ups. Foster knows she’s not a marquee queen: “I have a lot of respect for that star thing, where they “open’ movies and all that stuff. But I think people go to see my movies because they’re interesting films–not because I have good calves.” Might make $100 million.
Test score: 32% definitely interested
Air Force One Directed by Wolfgang Petersen. With Harrison Ford. Budget: $85 million
Buzz: Ford’s a president who refuses to negotiate with terrorists–and then they hijack his plane. This might be a formula picture, but it’s in the hands of masters. Says Ford, “Emotionally, the film works in an extraordinary way. Audiences full of hard-bitten studio executives were moved to tears by it.” They may have another good cry coming: both “Titanic” and “Conspiracy Theory” are currently set to open on the very same weekend. Someone better blink. Maybe $100 million at the box office?
Test score: 33% definitely interested
Conspiracy Theory Directed by Richard Donner. With Mel Gibson and Julia Roberts. Budget: $75 million
Buzz: A paranoid cabby convinces a Justice Department attorney that she’s in danger. (Notice how this premise doesn’t roll off the tongue the way “prez on a plane” does.) If Roberts charms them in “My Best Friend’s Wedding,” a comeback could be in full effect by the time this opens. Warner Bros. is calling Gibson Oscar-caliber –he ought to be, since he got $20 million–but that could just be an excuse to move the movie into the fall. It might break $100 million.
Test score: 32% definitely interested
Titanic Directed by James Cameron. With Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet. Budget: $200 million
Buzz: Romeo, Juliet and an iceberg. This is the one summer movie with epic ambitions, but Cameron’s obsession with historical accuracy has overwhelmed the project. The unapologetic director couldn’t finish in time for a July 4 opening, which will hurt at the box office, as well as create a logjam in late July and August. “Titanic” will have an edge with younger audiences, but women, who pick date movies, will already be sweating to see Mel and Harrison. Also, this is essentially an hourlong action movie that follows two hours of Merchant Ivory costume drama. Split personalities are tough to market. The water could be cold: $150 million.
Test score: 34% definitely interested
