Dole hasn’t been able to sell his tax plan because people don’t feel he believes it himself. Aware that a weak presidential campaign could imperil their control of Congress, House and Senate Republicans are distancing themselves from the nominee–they stayed away in droves when Dole returned to Capitol Hill last week. In fact, the only time Dole got any real news play was during the San Diego convention itself. Since Labor Day, the Iraq situation has meant that the news has mostly been about Clinton as commander in chief, and Clinton has been playing the part well enough. So this election is shaping up as a replay of 1984, with Dole as a Republican Walter Mondale. I couldn’t figure out how anybody could stop Ronald Reagan in ‘84, and I have a hard time figuring how to slow down the Clinton campaign now.

But here’s how I’d do it. Dole has to go for broke if he wants to avoid being Fritzed. He ought to buy TV time and talk very plainly to the voters. He should say something like this: ““If the election were held tomorrow, I would obviously be trounced. I have to accept that I’ve failed to communicate what I’m about and that I’ve failed to speak clearly on the problems facing this country. I recognize I have not been able to convince most of you that my tax cut would be good for the country, and I realize that the time for politics as usual is over. You and I know we face tough decisions on spending and en- titlements. If you’re worried about the country–about your kids and your grandchildren–these issues must be addressed now, not four years from now.

““So I say tonight that if elected I will not run for a second term. You can’t make tough decisions if you’re worried about getting re-elected, and Bill Clinton, with his lifelong record of straddling, won’t make the hard calls. But I will.’'

Sure, this would fly in the face of Dole’s recent pandering to veterans and others, but people might appreciate his attention-getting, late-breaking candor, and listen to how he might really cut taxes and spending. Moreover, it deflates whatever voter appeal Ross Perot has left, and it focuses the race on Clinton’s performance in office. Clinton is winning that issue by default. Since ‘94, he has in effect been saying, ““You think I’m bad? Look at Newt and those other guys.’’ That’s not a great answer, but it’s good enough for many people. Dole can’t out-promise Clinton, and he can’t go negative–all of Clinton’s negatives are already out there and none of them has made a difference. If Dole doesn’t do something drastic, fast, the party that has been his life will be back wandering in the wilderness.