How The Pollsters Changed Their Game After Getting The 2016 Election Wrong
Then Donald Trump became president. The forecasting breakdown spurred several “autopsy” reports analyzing what exactly went wrong. Possible explanations included a failure to track the substantial change in voter preference in the final days of the campaign, under-polling in battleground states like Michigan or Wisconsin, and a “silent majority” that failed to reveal their support for Trump until after the election. “We still don’t know one hundred percent for sure,” said Sean Trende, a senior elections analyst for the political news site and polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, when asked what happened four years ago....